Meteorologists Warn ‘Megadrought’ in US Southwest is Worst in 1,200 Years

Sputnik – May 12, 2022

A new study has found that the 22-year-long water shortage plaguing the American Southwest and western Mexico is the region’s worst in more than a millennium – a phenomenon dubbed a “megadrought.”

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, found that soil moisture deprivation has exceeded that of a megadrought in the 16th century that was previously the region’s worst known drought.

It’s so bad that University of California Los Angeles geographer Park Williams, the study’s lead author, has warned it would take a prolonged shift in weather patterns to remedy things.

The researchers looked at tree rings to compare the present drought’s intensity with those of years past, since trees generally produce wider rings in wet years and narrower rings in drier years. They found that since 2000, the average soil moisture deficit was twice that of any drought of the past century, with nothing comparable being found until 1,200 years back.

The region has always been quite dry, of course, with four large deserts dominating the terrain and the rest being fairly arid. Indigenous civilization was well-adapted to the precarious conditions, but modern cities have been built without respect to climate – and may soon suffer the consequences.

Reservoirs created by hydroelectric dams, like the famous Hoover Dam outside Las Vegas, Nevada, that holds back Lake Mead, are reaching historic lows. The lake provides the City That Never Sleeps with its freshwater, but has suffered steady water loss since 1983, which has accelerated in recent years, requiring modifications to Hoover Dam’s turbines to allow it to continue producing electricity despite the low water level.

https://sputniknews.com

The US Southwest is hitting megadrought status

– February 14, 2022

About half of the contiguous US is currently experiencing moderate to extreme drought—including almost all of the West. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, as widely pervasive drought has been present for quite a while now in this region, where major reservoirs like Lake Powell and Lake Mead are hovering around all-time low-water levels. But how does this ongoing drought compare to the past? After all, the region is no stranger to dry stretches.

A 2020 paper examined the 2000-2018 data in the context of a tree ring reconstruction going back to the year 800 and stretching from Southern California to Wyoming. That team found that this was likely the second-driest period in the record, beat out only by a megadrought in the late 1500s.

At the time, the paper’s authors guessed that good precipitation in 2019 would be enough to end the extended drought. But instead, a particularly wicked 2021 kept the drought alive. As a result, three of those researchers—UCLA’s Park Williams and NASA’s Benjamin Cook and Jason Smerdon—decided to update the numbers through 2021.

The most mega

The term “megadrought” isn’t some sensationalist moniker from bad television; it’s a term for the handful of two- to three-decade Southwestern droughts in the past millennium or so—some with history-defining impacts on the civilizations who lived there at the time.

With the analysis updated, 2000-2021 ranks as the driest such 22-year period in the data going back to the year 800. The megadrought years of 1571-1592 slip into second place. (Though the error bars on the two periods overlap.)

Between 2000 and 2021, 18 of those years saw soil moisture below the long-term average. Only two past megadroughts meet that level of consistent dryness. The years 2002 and 2021 rank as the 11th and 12th driest years in the whole record—and it has been three centuries since a drier year occurred. And although some megadroughts were focused in a particular region, the drought of the last two decades has been widespread across the West. That’s what you would expect to see from a drought driven more by global warming than by precipitation patterns.

To estimate the contribution of climate change, the researchers repeated their analysis of climate models run with and without warming temperatures. Their previous work had estimated that 46 percent of the severity of the 2000-2018 drought was due to human-caused warming. For 2000-2021, they get a similar answer of 42 percent despite using a new generation of climate model simulations.

https://arstechnica.com

Plunging Crop Supplies Send Prices Soaring And Reignite Food Inflation Fears, WASDE Reports

Tyler Durden – August 12, 2021

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Thursday afternoon and pointed to declining grain supplies that sent grain futures prices higher and will keep food inflation in focus.

The closely watched supply and demand report slashed estimates for corn yields and stockpiles. World inventories for wheat were reported near a five-year low.

Grain and oilseed futures soared to a near-decade high earlier this year but have been in a holding pattern for the last month, awaiting new reports on the outlook for upcoming U.S. harvests. A megadrought and back-to-back heat waves have plagued the corn belt and the U.S. West for much of the summer. 

Bloomberg outlines the key takeaways from the August WASDE report:

  • DROUGHT BITES: U.S. corn and soybean yields fell below analyst expectations and the declines were largely centered in the drought-stricken northern Plains, where severe drought has withered crops.
  • RUSSIA: So goes Russia’s harvest, so goes the wheat market. A large cut in the harvest means a lot less global wheat supplies and Russia’s wheat-export throne as the world’s top shipper is in doubt with the current forecast in line with exports out of the E.U.
  • WHEAT PEAK: Benchmark Chicago wheat prices hit the highest levels for a most-active contract since 2013. Corn and soybeans each touched multi-week highs but remain below multi-year peaks from earlier in 2021.
  • YOUR MOVE, FUNDS: With the USDA seeming to appease bullish traders with aggressive cuts and dry weather continuing to grip the Plains, an influx of speculative buying could bring the rally in grains, nearly a year-old at this point, to new heights.
  • FOOD INFLATION: Of course, with grain and soybean prices elevated for months, the higher costs should start to filter through the supply chain, pointing to higher prices for feed, seed, fertilizer, food and other goods.

This report means that adverse weather conditions are another driver of food inflation that shows no signs of stopping. We noted not too long ago, grocery store prices were expected to rise through the fall. Earlier this week, Tyson Foods Inc. said the surge in raw materials costs would force them to raise food prices in the coming weeks.

https://www.zerohedge.com

7 Plagues That Are Hitting Our Planet Right Now

– March 21, 2021

Things are starting to get really crazy out there.  In recent interviews, I have used the term “stability” to describe the current state of affairs, and some people may think that is quite strange.  But I stand by that assessment.  In the short-term, we have experienced a period of relative stability over the last couple of months, but of course that will soon change.  I believe that global events will soon greatly accelerate, and much chaos is on the horizon.  However, that certainly doesn’t mean that nothing of importance is happening at the moment.  In fact, the following are 7 plagues that are hitting our planet right now…

#1 A Plague Of Millions Of Rats In Australia

Could you imagine having so many rats infesting your community that it is literally impossible to ever get away from the smell?  Right now, millions upon millions of rats are making lives miserable for countless residents of Australia, and in some instances it is literally taking hours just to clean up all of the poop that they leave behind…

#2 Large Earthquakes

According to the USGS, usually we get about 15 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater each year…

So far in 2021, we have already had 7 that are magnitude 7.0 or greater, and that includes a magnitude 7.0 earthquake that just shook Japan

#3 Volcanoes Are Roaring To Life All Over The Globe

According to Volcano Discovery, 29 volcanoes around the planet are currently erupting right now, and that includes a volcano in Iceland that had been dormant for hundreds of years

#4 The “Megadrought” In The Southwestern United States

Earlier this month, I wrote an entire article about the megadrought in the Southwest entitled “You Were Warned That Dust Bowl Conditions Would Return, And Now It Has Happened”.

Well, this drought just continues to get even worse. In fact, NBC News is telling us that there is “little hope for relief” any time soon…

#5 Armies Of Locusts In Africa And The Middle East

In 2020, giant armies of locusts the size of major cites relentlessly marched across parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia.  Millions of farmers had their crops wiped out, and experts told us that it was unlike anything they had ever seen before.

That was only supposed to be a one year plague, but now it is happening again

#6 H5N8 Bird Flu In Russia

When cases of H5N8 bird flu started to pop up in Russia, many experts started to become extremely concerned that it could start being transmitted from human to human.

Because if it starts spreading widely among humans, the percentage of victims that will die will be far higher than for COVID.

Unfortunately, one of the top experts in Russia says that there is “a fairly high degree of probability” that it is now being passed from one person to another…

#7 The COVID Pandemic

Even though people are being vaccinated at a feverish pace all over the globe, the number of confirmed cases in Brazil is higher than ever before and experts are telling us that a “fourth wave” has begun in Europe.

Could it be possible that the vaccines are not going to be the “saviors” that so many people were anticipating?

At this point, more than 2.7 million victims have already died from COVID, and more are passing away every single day.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com

Forecast for Spring: Nasty Drought Worsens for Much of US

Newsmax – March 19, 2021

With nearly two-thirds of the United States abnormally dry or worse, the government’s spring forecast offers little hope for relief, especially in the West where a devastating megadrought has taken root and worsened.

Weather service and agriculture officials warned of possible water use cutbacks in California and the Southwest, increased wildfires, low levels in key reservoirs such has Lake Mead and Lake Powell and damage to wheat crops.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s official spring outlook Thursday sees an expanding drought with a drier than normal April, May and June for a large swath of the country from Louisiana to Oregon. including some areas hardest hit by the most severe drought. And nearly all of the continental United States is looking at warmer than normal spring, except for tiny parts of the Pacific Northwest and southeast Alaska, which makes drought worse.

“We are predicting prolonged and widespread drought,” National Weather Service Deputy Director Mary Erickson said. “It’s definitely something we’re watching and very concerned about.”

NOAA expects the spring drought to hit 74 million people.

https://www.newsmax.com

In Parched Southwest, Warm Spring Renews Threat of ‘Megadrought’

DNYUZ – July 8, 2020

LOVELAND PASS, Colo. — Here at 12,000 feet on the Continental Divide, only vestiges of the winter snowpack remain, scattered white patches that have yet to melt and feed the upper Colorado River, 50 miles away.

That’s normal for mid-June in the Rockies. What’s unusual this year is the speed at which the snow went. And with it went hopes for a drought-free year in the Southwest.

“We had a really warm spring,” said Graham Sexstone, a hydrologist with the United States Geological Survey. “Everything this year has melted really fast.”

The Southwest has been mired in drought for most of the past two decades. The heat and dryness, made worse by climate change, have been so persistent that some researchers say the region is now caught up in a megadrought, like those that scientists who study past climate say occurred here occasionally over the past 1,200 years and lasted 40 years or longer.

Even a single season of drought is bad news for the Southwest, where agriculture, industry and millions of people rely on the region’s two major rivers, the Colorado and the Rio Grande, and their tributaries for much of their water. Dry conditions also shrivel crops, harm livestock and worsen wildfires.

But droughts, even long ones, eventually end, when the natural variability of climate results in a few “good,” meaning wet, years in a row. So after a relatively cool and wet spring last year followed by a decent snowpack in the fall and winter, there was some optimism that 2020 might be remembered as the year the long Southwestern drought started to fade.

But then came April and May, which were warm and dry, leading to rapid melting and runoff.

Normally, Dr. Sexstone said, measurements of stream flow at gauges in the region would slowly climb to a peak and then drop off gradually as the season progressed.

“This year it seemed like it peaked and then plummeted,” he said.

https://dnyuz.com