Putin pins Ukraine hopes on winter and divisive US politics

It feels like I’m watching a scene from a James Bond film.

Somewhere near Moscow, Russia’s president is up on stage being quizzed
about the Apocalypse. The moderator reminds Putin he had once predicted
that, after a nuclear war, Russians would go to heaven.

“We’re in no rush to get there, are we?” the moderator enquires hopefully.

There’s a long, uncomfortable pause. Seven seconds of silence.

“Your silence is worrying me,” the moderator says.

“It was meant to,” replies Putin with a chuckle.

Forgive me for not laughing. This is no Hollywood blockbuster with a guaranteed happy ending. The events of the last eight months are a real-life drama that has brought untold suffering to Ukraine and, many believe, the world closer to nuclear conflict than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis 60 years ago.

So, where does the screenplay go from here?

Much depends on the answer to this question: how far is Vladimir Putin prepared to go to secure victory – or to avoid defeat – in Ukraine?

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