Category: Red Horse

Conflict with China a ‘high likelihood’, says top Australian general

Nick McKenzie and Anthony Galloway – May 4, 2021

One of the nation’s top military commanders told his troops that Beijing is already engaged in “grey zone” warfare against Australia and they must plan for the high likelihood this may spill over into actual conflict in the future.

The candid and confidential briefing by Major-General Adam Findlay to Australia’s special forces soldiers last year gives the most detailed insight yet made public into how the nation’s top military planners view the threat of China.

The then-special forces commander, who has since stepped down but who still advises the Australian Defence Force, highlighted the steps Australia’s military was taking to prevent war but also described a “high likelihood” that actual conflict could break out due to the unpredictable nature of foreign affairs.

“Who do you reckon the main [regional] threat is?” General Findlay asked his troops and officers before answering: “China”.

“OK, so if China is a threat, how many special forces brigades in China? You should know there are 26,000 Chinese SOF [Special Operations Forces] personnel.”

Details of the April 2020 briefing have been obtained by The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald from multiple sources who have requested to remain anonymous because they are not authorised to speak publicly. They say General Findlay told his troops that, if the threat of conflict was realised, the ADF needed to rely not only on traditional air, land and sea capabilities but also on Australia’s ability to use cyber and space warfare.

https://www.smh.com.au

Al-Qaeda Threatens to Wage War Against US ‘on All Fronts’ in Rare Interview With Mainstream Media

– April 30, 2021

The US holds Al-Qaeda responsible for the deadliest act of terror ever and the killing of nearly 3,000 Americans on 11 September 2001. The terror group’s influence declined significantly after 2014 and the rise of Daesh (ISIS), with fighters pledging allegiance to the competing jihadist entities often battling it out in Syria.

Al-Qaeda will continue its war against the United States after Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, two operatives said to be belong to the terrorist organization have told CNN.

Speaking to the network via an intermediary ahead of the ten-year anniversary of the 2011 SEAL team operation to kill Osama bin Laden, and following Joe Biden’s announcement that he would pull troops out of Afghanistan after nearly two decades of war, the terrorist group said that their “war against the US will be continuing on all other fronts unless they are expelled from the rest of the Islamic world.”

One of the spokesmen praised the Taliban for fighting the US over the past 19+ years, and suggested that “thanks to Afghans for the protection of comrades-in-arms, many such jihadi fronts have been successfully operating in different parts of the Islamic world for a long time.”

Sputnik has been unable to independently verify CNN’s claims that it spoke to the terror group, which almost never gives interviews to mainstream Western media and instead typically issues pronouncements via its own guerrilla networks or taped audio or video releases.

CNN took the operatives’ comments to mean that there are continued ties between al-Qaeda and the Taliban, despite the latter’s commitment under the 2020 US-Taliban peace deal to prevent al-Qaeda and other terrorists from using Afghan soil “to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.”

https://sputniknews.com

Iran is just 3-4 months from breakout, says Israeli intel. Who’s to stop it?

Debkafiles – April 23, 2021

Israel’s three security kingpins go to Washington next week to try and modify, if not halt, the Biden administration’s race for a nuclear pact with Iran. Mossad director Yossi Cohen, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, and national security adviser Mair Ben-Shabbat will not arrive as a delegation but separate and make tracks for their counterparts at the top of American military, intelligence and national security organizations. Unlike in 2015, Israel will not go face to face against the administration as it did over Barack Obama’s initiative to conclude the original nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers. Instead, the government in Jerusalem hopes to modify the finished product by inserting clauses that meet Israel’s most pressing security concerns and the threats that may be left open by the deal. The three officials will try and persuade the administration to accommodate those vital adjustments and talk down its fears of rejection by Tehran.

Washington, for its part, while not sharing the current state of its indirect dialogue with Tehran, is also making an effort to calm Israel’s concerns. On Monday, April 19, US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas Greenfield, stated: “The Biden administration will support Israel as it works to counter the threats posed by Iran’s aggressive behavior.” She was responding to Israel’s unease over possible premature sanctions relief by the US for keeping Iran at the table and the ongoing Vienna talks for reviving the 2015 nuclear accord afloat. For Iran, this is a major talking point. The release of frozen funds, following the example set by Obama, will enable Tehran to boost its support for proxies hostile to Israel like the Lebanese Hizballah, Iraqi Shiite militias and the Houthi insurgents of Yemen.

Israel’s apprehension was reinforced when President Hassan Rouhani commented on Tuesday, April 20: “Negotiations have achieved 60-70 percent progress. If the Americans act honestly, we will reach a conclusion in little time.” The US State Department spokesman Ned Price stepped in to cool this sentiment by saying: “There have been no breakthroughs and a long road lies ahead.”

DEBKAfile’s military sources note that for Israel, all this palaver is beside the point.  Rouhani needs to sound upbeat to offer a ray of hope to a population sunk in a welter of disastrous crises. The Biden administration wants to convey the impression that there is a long way to go for nuclear negotiations and the US is in no hurry to hand out concessions to Iran.

But Israel’s overriding focus is on Iran’s furtive advance on its objective. According to its intelligence services, Iran hs been creeping forward to breakout time for a nuclear weapon and reached a point no more than 3-4 months away from this target.

https://www.debka.com

Biden declares Russia threat ‘national emergency,’ lobs sanctions; 10 diplomats booted over election meddling

Tyler Olson, Alex Pappas – April 15, 2021

President Biden on Thursday signed an executive order declaring a “national emergency” over the threat from Russia, as his administration slapped new sanctions on the country.

The U.S. Department of State said it is expelling 10 officials from Russia’s bilateral mission.

“Today, we announced actions to hold the Russian Government to account for the SolarWinds intrusion, reports of bounties on U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, and attempts to interfere in the 2020 U.S. elections,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

The White House also released a letter to Congress stating that the president has issued “an Executive Order declaring a national emergency with respect to the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States posed by specified harmful foreign activities of the Government of the Russian Federation.”

The letter said that Russia had aimed to “undermine the conduct of free and fair democratic elections,” engaged in “malicious cyber-enabled activities,” targeted journalists and dissenters outside of its borders, and violated international law.

This, Biden said in the letter, constitutes “an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States.”

https://www.foxnews.com

Israel shifts focus to Tehran’s sea bridge, strikes Guards ship in the Red Sea

Debkafiles – April 7, 2021

A US official told The New York Times that Israel had informed Washington of an attack by its forces on the IRGC-flagged Saviz in the Red Sea on Tuesday, April 6, in reprisal for Iranian strikes against its merchant vessels. The target was a floating IRGC intelligence base stationed between Eritrea and Yemen.

No comment has come from Israel to this report. The official said the ship had been hit below the water line. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said that the large ship was hit by limpet mines; the IRGC blamed Israel on social media. Located at a strategic Red Sea choke point, the ship which has been stationary for two years can provide a constant flow of real-time intelligence on maritime traffic and military vessels. Uniformed men have been seen onboard the ship, and on the deck are small launch boats that are commonly used by the IRGC.

The incident highlights five points, noted here by DEBKAfile’s analysts:

  1. The Saviz was in position for gathering intelligence relevant to any planned Iranian sea or land Red Sea region aggression, including Israeli or Saudi coastal targets.
  2. The Biden administration jumped the gun in publicizing Israel’s role in the attack for its own ends. It coincided with the opening of the first indirect talks between the US and Iran, brokered by the EU in Vienna and through back channels to revive the 2025 nuclear deal, to which Israel strongly objects. US officials released the story as a warning to Israel not to spoil the diplomatic track.
  3. Iran, normally cagy or slow to acknowledge Israeli military strikes, got in fast with a cursory report by Tanzim.
  4. All this indicates a tidal shift in the tactics used in the Israel-Iranian conflict. Most significantly, the focus has moved from Israel’s campaign to wipe out Iran’s land bridge through Syria to a drive to disrupt its oceanic bridge through the Red Sea.
  5. The Saviz attack substantially notched up the intensity of the conflict.  Most of the sea attacks until now involved civilian shipping. Israel reportedly struck a row of Iranian Syria-bound oil tankers in the Mediterranean in 2019 and last month. This year, Iran hit two Israeli merchant vessels in the Mediterranean and Gulf of Oman. But this time, the target was military, a ship called in a US report a “covert IRGC forward base.

https://www.debka.com

Russia Warns NATO Against Sending Any Troops To Ukraine As “Frightening” Escalation Looms

Tyler Durden – April 02, 2021

The Kremlin’s latest statements out Friday amid the potential new Ukraine crisis which has seen a serious flare-up in fighting in the Donbass region, along with what appears to be far bigger-than-usual troop movements on Russia’s side of the border, has raised the stakes further.

Russia has vowed it will take “extra measures to ensure its own security” should it observe any deployment of NATO troops inside Ukraine, the Kremlin statement said Friday according to Reuters.

It firmly warned against any potential looming NATO troop movements following Brussels voicing concern the day prior over the widespread reports and videos purporting to show a significant Russian build-up of forces along Ukraine’s eastern border.

Reuters reports Russia’s Friday statement and “warning” as follows:

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday that the situation at the contact line in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatist forces was quite frightening and that multiple “provocations” were taking place there.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Taran, and “condemned recent escalations of Russian aggressive and provocative actions in eastern Ukraine,” the Pentagon said.

“Our rhetoric [over Donbass] is absolutely constructive,” Peskov said in response to journalists’ questions. “We do not indulge in wishful thinking. Regrettably, the realities along the engagement line are rather frightening. Provocations by the Ukrainian armed forces do take place. They are not casual. There have been many of them.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the Russian troop movements across the border, calling the situation “muscle-flexing” likely to lead to “provocations” for which Ukraine’s army is “ready”.

https://www.zerohedge.com

Iran fired missile at Israeli ship in Arabian Sea – report

EVE YOUNG – March 25, 2021

An Iranian missile was fired at an Israeli ship in the Arabian Sea, hitting and damaging it, N12 reported Thursday.

The container ship is owned by an Israeli businessman and was making its way to Tanzania from India, it reported.As the ship sailed between India and Oman, it was hit by a missile and damaged, the report said.

The incident was reported to Israeli security officials and to the ship’s owners. The  ship will continue on its way to India, where the damage will be assessed, N12 reported.

Israeli security officials are examining the possible implications of the incident and estimate that it could mean Iran intends to attack more Israeli ships, the report said.

The ship is owned by Haifa-based XT Management, it said.

Iran was also the main suspect behind an attack in late February on the Israeli-owned cargo vessel MV Helios Ray, which was damaged by a mysterious explosion in the Gulf of Oman.

https://www.jpost.com

Biden defense secretary warns US forces ready to ‘fight tonight’ after North Korea warning

Audrey Conklin – March 18, 2021

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday warned North Korea that U.S. forces are ready to “fight tonight” after the dictatorship condemned military drills taking place in South Korea.

The U.S. and South Korean militaries have resumed springtime drills in South Korea after pausing exercises last February due to coronavirus concerns.

Austin discussed the U.S. military’s commitment to “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” and “the importance of maintaining military readiness” during a press conference Wednesday.

“Our force remains ready to ‘fight tonight,’ and we continue to make progress toward the eventual transition of wartime Operational Control to a [Republic of Korea]-commanded, future Combined Forces Command,” the defense secretary said.

He continued: “While meeting all the conditions for this transition will take more time, I’m confident that this process will strengthen our alliance.”

U.S.-led diplomacy focusing on North Korea’s nuclear weapons remains stalemated because of disputes over sanctions. Experts are debating whether the United States and its allies should settle for a deal that would freeze North Korea’s nuclear activities in return for relaxing sanctions to prevent its arsenal from growing.

Earlier this week, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned the United States to “refrain from causing a stink,” while criticizing the U.S.-South Korean drills that her government views as an invasion rehearsal.

“We take this opportunity to warn the new U.S. administration trying hard to give off powder smell in our land,” Kim Yo Jong said in a statement to state news agency KCNA, according to Reuters. “If it wants to sleep in peace for coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step.”

https://www.foxnews.com

Iran piles on aggression, emboldened by US-Saudi-Israel restraint

Debkafiles – March 9, 2021

US goodwill gestures and warning signals have clearly lost their punch for Iran – even when backed by the mighty US B-52 bombers flying over their heads. After dozens of attacks on Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels outdid themselves on Sunday, March 8 by sending 14 armed drones and 8 ballistic missiles flying toward the Saudi petrol tank farm at Ras Tanura, one of the largest oil shipping ports in the world, and the residential area of Dharan that houses foreign oil workers, including Americans.  A gag order from Riyadh concealed the scale of injuries and damage. (See attached picture.)

On the same day, two heavy nuclear-capable US B-52 Stratofortress bombers made a round trip to the Gulf and back to home base, escorted through the skies of the region by British, Israel, Saudi and Qatari warplanes. This was the heavy bomber’s seventh mission over the Gulf and the second since Joe Biden took office as president.

In sharp contrast to actions set in motion from Tehran, America’s answer to the Yemeni attack on Saudi Arabia scarcely resonated. State Department spokesman Ned Price called it “unacceptable and dangerous, and put civilians at risk, including Americans.” He added, “They need to stop attacking and start negotiating.”

But Iran’s Yemeni proxy was clearly on the march even after the Biden administration made the gesture of lifting the terror designation and halting arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

The template for America’s non-response to devastating Iranian-instigated attacks on Saudi Arabia was set in September, 2019, when the Saudis’ main oilfields at Abqaig and Khurais were hit squarely and precisely by the same mix of drones and ballistic missiles. The attack, which cut Saudi oil production by half, was launched jointly by Yemeni Houthis in the south and pro-Iranian Iraqi Shiite militias from the north.

Not content with instigating a major assault on Saudi Arabia, Iranian officials also on Sunday had strong words for Israel too. Defense Minister Amir Hatami threatened to raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground if Israel conducted a pre-emptive attack on Iran. Since this threat has become a constant, Hatami reinforced it by saying that, this time, he had orders from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to translate those words into an active operation.

https://www.debka.com

Iran Built, ‘Sanitised’ Secret Nuclear Site Ahead of IAEA Inspectors’ Arrival, Report Claims

– March 5, 2021

The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the diplomatic wing of the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MEK), an Iran-listed domestic terrorist group, claims to have uncovered evidence of illegal activity at a secret Iranian nuclear facility.

In an online conference held Tuesday and picked up on by some US media, the NCRI provided information about an alleged deactivated nuclear site located in the Abadeh region in central Iran.

The analysis, complete with an examination of open-source intelligence, including Google Earth and DigitalGlobe satellite images, claims that the Abadeh site was previously overseen by Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian nuclear scientist assassinated in an attack on his convoy outside Tehran late last year, and whom Israeli intelligence has alleged was the head of a secret Iranian nuclear programme.

The NCRI says the facility was built by companies controlled by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and played a role in ‘Project Marivan’, an element “of the clerical regime’s nuclear weapons programme”.

Iran denies that it has any intention to pursue nuclear weapons, and its supreme leaders have issued fatwas (religious rulings compliance with which is mandatory) banning the development of nuclear arms and other weapons of mass destruction.

The Abadeh site was supposedly been built for use by the Center for Research and Expansion of Technologies on Explosions and Impact (Persian acronym METFAZ), a subunit of the Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), the research entity which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed was tasked with pursuing the development of nukes in his ‘Iran Lied’ speech in April 2018. The Trump administration is thought to have based its decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, at least in part, on this speech.

According to the NCRI, the Abadeh facility was “sanitised” in July 2019, prior to the arrival of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors in August of that year.

https://sputniknews.com